COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY HURRICANE FORECAST TEAM PREDICTS ABOVE-AVERAGE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

The team's first extended-range forecast for the 2009 hurricane season anticipates 14 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30.

Seven of the 14 storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those seven, three are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

http://www.newsinfo.colostate.edu/ind ... ay&news_item_id=482539104

I guess that's one reason I stay here in the frozen tundra - we never hear "hurricane" in the forecast.

Just like last year's prediction. And the year's before, and before that, and before that.

Know what the prediction is for summer 2010? Read the prediction for year xxxx. Take it to the bank. TODAY.

Those reports are used by property underwriters for raising premiums. I've said that for many years, and a year or 2 ago, I heard it on a business/weather news program. Quite a candid declaration, if I might add.

Ever heard, "Everybody talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it."? If you haven't heard it, it's doubtful you ever will.

Snowfall futures are traded as of 2006 on the CME. So when Hillary dumps $1,000 into snowfall futures, and gets some elected official to talk about snow, guess what the futures price does, just before she cashes out?

The US Drought Monitoring Agency, part of NWS, uses as one of their drought indices, 'political declarations and media reports'. This means if the governor talks about the drought, the USDMA 'measures' it (and the media report that follows), and re-calculates the drought.

Know why he 'talks' about it? It increases the likelihood of drought relief assistance from DC.

EDIT:
Yup, chicken little strikes again.

The numbers don't lie - first accuracy study I found:


Doin' some quick extrapolatin' shows about a 40 - 50 % error an the plus side.

What more need be said huh?

Time for you to go visit the Colonel there, Chicken Little yup!


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What does this federal disaster relief pay for anyways? Who does it go to?

Restoring utilities and public works?
Rebuilding private homes or businesses?
Emergency medical/police/fire funding?

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They would have been more accurate if they just predicted the 25-yr average each time.

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In the case of drought relief, it goes to corporate ownership of ag farms (the ones who contributed to the election campaigns).

Which is fine with me, as long as Campaign Finance Reform is constructed to disclose who gave what, and I can then inve$t with them.

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There are several different ways to apply for Federal relief.

1 - The governmental jurisdiction so this can include utitilies, public works, EMS, police, fire, public health, etc. They need to make sure everything is documented.

2 - The private citizen - they have to file individually. FEMA sets up Disaster Recovery Centers and and hotlines for individuals to make their claims. It is at the DRCs that they can also get other services, medical/health, and many of the insurers are there to so that it's one stop shopping.

3 - Certain businesses. not all business can aply for relief, from what I've seen it can usually goes to small business and not for profit business. If a business provided direct support for the disaster response, they can apply through the governmental jurisdiction when they make their claim as part of the price of responding.

Parts of 2 and 3 sound like pity payments. I was hoping it was just for infrastructure. So it sounds kinda like free insurance against a major loss.